In the final episode of 2021, in which we saw huge growth in offshore wind, Allen and Rosemary give their big takeaways from the year along with predictions for what’s to come in 2022. Will we see 20MW wind turbines? A development slowdown due to inflation? Regulatory hurdles? Go here for the video about McDonald’s ice cream machines mentioned on the show.
Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!
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Transcript: EP93 of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast
00:00:37:11 – 00:00:38:13
Welcome back.
00:00:38:13 – 00:00:40:00
I’m Dan Blewett.
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I’m Allen Hall and I’m Rosemary Barnes,
and this is the Up Time podcast
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bringing you the latest in wind
energy, tech news
00:00:48:03 – 00:00:49:18
and policy.
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All right.
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Welcome back to the Uptime
Wind Energy podcast.
00:01:02:18 – 00:01:05:03
I’m your co-host, Dan Blewett on today’s
show,
00:01:05:03 – 00:01:08:14
we’re going to do a sort of 2021
a year and wrap up.
00:01:08:23 – 00:01:11:20
So aside from a couple topics
which we’re going to talk about,
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including balsa wood harvesting, obviously
that’s used in wind turbine blades.
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And as they’ve expanded in size,
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that harvesting has sped up,
which is threatening the rainforest.
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We’ll talk through that
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as well as maybe some possible
replacements for that material
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in the near future.
00:01:27:14 – 00:01:31:07
What about Germany phasing out
nuclear power and Siemens Gamesa
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accepting bids to sell off the wind
development arm of their business?
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And then, as we do our sort of 2021
00:01:37:08 – 00:01:40:16
wrap up, we have five questions
we’re going to throw to our experts here
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about, you know, developments.
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They see predictions
and maybe some surprising things
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about the year behind us.
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So look for that
in the second half of today’s show.
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Before we get going, be sure to subscribe
to Uptime Tech News, which you will find
00:01:53:15 – 00:01:56:23
in the show notes of this podcast,
as well as Rosemary’s YouTube channel.
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Where is you doing twice a month?
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Live streams
and all things renewable and wind energy
00:02:02:03 – 00:02:05:05
shows a great job there, so check out
both in the description below.
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So first thing on the docket today,
we’re going to talk about balsa wood.
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So obviously this is used structurally
in wind turbine blades, and the bigger
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they get, the more this has been useful
and necessary to increase harvesting.
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And of course, just like anything
as demand goes up,
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this is putting strain
on this natural resource.
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Rosemary, obviously working for Elm Wind
Power, you have a pretty good idea of,
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you know, the vendor relationships
and all of the materials
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that go into these blades.
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Can you take us through this situation
with balsa wood?
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Like, where does balsa wood
fit in to blade construction?
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Yeah.
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So Balsa Wood is a sandwich material,
a core core material
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for making composite sandwiches.
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So it’s just like the name suggests you.
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You make a sandwich
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before, like a fiberglass
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or sometimes carbon fiber skins.
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And then in the middle of the sandwich
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is a core material,
so it has to be really lightweight.
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Its whole point is to keep the composites
separated from each other.
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That’s that’s most of what it’s doing.
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So the lighter, the better,
and you just get better, better stiffness
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without increasing the waste
by making that sandwich structure.
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And it also helps a lot
with with buckling, you know, like
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when you tread on an aluminum
can the it’s very thin walled
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and the sides will buckle a wind
turbine blades could do that, too.
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If you didn’t make sure that you made
the panels stiff enough to avoid that.
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So you put the the core structure,
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you put that in the big flat
areas, basically.
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So you have it
a lot on the trailing edge of the blade
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and then in the shear webs as well
so that, you know, the like inside.
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And sometimes it’s
called like a box box beam
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the walls that are connecting the upwind
and the downwind side of the blade.
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So that’s where it is.
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And it was traditionally
usually balsa wood.
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And I mean, it just comes from other
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that’s just a really common
lightweight material.
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People use it to make model airplanes and
stuff for the same types of properties.
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It’s definitely not the only core material
that you can use.
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And actually,
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when I saw that we were going
to be talking about this topic,
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I had to do some research
because I started.
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I was with l’m from 2016 to 2021.
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And when I started there,
I think pretty much all the sheer
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webs were already made
out of foam called material.
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So it’s like a plastic foam
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preferably made from recycled
plastic bottles or something like that.
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And they were also
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moving towards a foam for the
the blade shells as well.
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So on the trailing edge part,
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when I was there, not every single blade
was made entirely from foam,
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but definitely
I feel like most of them were.
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I didn’t go through and count,
but to me it felt like
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the older ones used Balsa
and the newer ones were using this foam.
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And to be honest,
it wasn’t like an environmental reason
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that was chosen for that.
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I mean, the recycled materials
was because it was possible to have a more
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environmentally friendly material.
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But there’s a lot of problems with balsa
wood and the supply chain especially.
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I mean, it’s a natural product,
so you get varying quality.
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That’s 11 issue
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that’s just, you know, that’s built
into any kind of a natural product.
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You can’t control how the
tree grows that that closely
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it’s affected by seasonality as well.
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You know, it doesn’t.
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Yeah,
you can’t just harvest all year round
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and then, yeah,
the supply chain issues as well.
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I know in 2019 there was like a big
a big problem for manufacturers
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that were using exclusively balsa wood
and that in that blades
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because the demand rose
and supply couldn’t keep up.
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And they’re having shortages.
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And some people have to say
production of it’s due to that.
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So I think those are the main reasons why
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manufacturers are moving away from.
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Balsa Wood, yeah,
but that’s certainly not the only material
00:06:02:22 – 00:06:04:23
that you can use to make your wind
turbine flight.
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Well, it sounds like I mean, there’s
besides obviously just the deforestation
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in Ecuador and Peru and some other places.
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There’s also just the fact
that when people are making
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their way into a forest to cut down trees,
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they’re doing so with, you know,
with canoes, they’re taking trucks
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and they’re bringing in the ways
they’re bringing in food products,
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leaving trash behind.
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Apparently,
they’re eating some of the local animals.
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I guess that’s
where they’re getting their lunch.
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We’re getting some eating turtles
and all these other things.
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So they’re just like a lot of ecological
damage in general that this is causing.
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I don’t know, Alan, do you think this?
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I mean, could we start farming balsa or
is it not maybe a product that would work?
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Can we not just domesticate balsa
wood trees?
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I don’t.
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Well, not in the US.
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Don’t think it’s the right temperature and
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amount of rainfall for balsa wood.
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And that’s why it just grows in specific
regions.
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Peru is one of those places where it grows
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the I think that the issue with also
it is a renewable resource, obviously,
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and we have grown it for years
and I do think there are
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regrowth.
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Farms that have happened over time,
but when the demand goes up so fast,
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you can’t keep up with it.
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It takes time for a tree to grow, right,
so you’ve got to be thinking
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several years in advance.
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And if the wind turbine industry explodes
in terms of demand,
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you’re kind of in trouble.
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And that’s that’s what’s happening.
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And the switch to petty
and some other plastic
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materials is probably the easier solution.
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Obviously, it’s the supply chain
is probably a little more stable
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than Balsa will be, particularly now.
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But on the recycling end,
when we talk to Veolia about this
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a couple of episodes ago about blade
recycling, the the petty material wasn’t
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one of those things you could recycle
very easily or burn as one.
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I think it’s one of the things
that they would set aside
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that they would find another way
to try to reuse it.
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It wasn’t like Balsa, where you could just
burn it and use as an energy source.
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So the there’s a real big tradeoff here
because you’re talking about large amounts
00:08:09:00 – 00:08:12:07
of either balsa or something else
acting as the core material.
00:08:13:06 – 00:08:15:19
And what we would
do is I think the relationship is here
00:08:15:19 – 00:08:18:23
in aerospace and aerospace
would use essentially paper, right?
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No honeycomb
00:08:22:09 – 00:08:24:12
is a standard product
which is made out of paper.
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That’s aramid fiber basically paper,
and it’s put into this really funky shape.
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The problem is it’s expensive and the wind
turbine industry has never used it.
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And I think to
some other things about water
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that are valid
that water regressions are big problems.
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So I’m not sure what’s going to happen
with this bolt balsa industry.
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You know, what will likely happen
is that the whole wind turbine industry,
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besides maybe a couple of players
will leave Balsa behind
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and move on to other materials
that are more supply chain stable.
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Can I just add not Adobe also comes
from illegal logging of rainforests.
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They have that balsa plantations.
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And until I read this article,
I really haven’t had enough opportunity
00:09:06:10 – 00:09:10:02
to look in depth to see to what extent
you know this.
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This rain rainforest
deforestation is a big problem.
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Yeah,
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my understanding was that
Balsa was pretty sustainable.
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It’s grown in plantations.
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It takes six to ten years for a
00:09:23:11 – 00:09:25:23
the trade and reach maturity,
and then you regrow it.
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So, you know,
as long as the industry isn’t growing
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and it’s just like
with any other wood product, you know ,
00:09:31:16 – 00:09:35:04
you have to make sure that you’ve got
sustainable forest management.
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But I don’t see any reason why
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we need the rainforest.
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Deforestation needs to be
part of the Bolsa supply chain.
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I think definitely we need to.
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You wouldn’t want the industry
to just grow and grow and grow
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because then you would
definitely say problems like that.
00:09:52:18 – 00:09:55:13
But I think if people are responsible
with their supply chains,
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it would be possible
to keep on using similar amounts of Balsa
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to what we do now,
and we shouldn’t have any problems.
00:10:02:15 – 00:10:06:18
It should be sustainable and carbon
neutral and, you know, everything
00:10:06:18 – 00:10:07:13
like that.
00:10:07:19 – 00:10:10:23
Right now, though, isn’t
it really supply and demand as we need?
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We were just more demand
that’s going to drive the supply
00:10:15:05 – 00:10:18:01
to find other ways
to get also into the marketplace.
00:10:18:14 – 00:10:21:16
I think this is quite normal situation,
right?
00:10:22:02 – 00:10:22:17
The problem is
00:10:22:17 – 00:10:26:19
you don’t have you’re not planning
for that kind of huge growth and in wind
00:10:26:19 – 00:10:30:18
and the use of Balsa at the moment
and who would have seen five years ago
00:10:30:18 – 00:10:32:17
when you would
you had to plant those trees
00:10:32:17 – 00:10:35:10
that the demand would have grown like
it is right now.
00:10:35:11 – 00:10:37:15
I think that’s a problem.
We had similar problems.
00:10:38:03 – 00:10:41:08
If you remember way back
when we were making tires
00:10:41:08 – 00:10:44:17
that our rubber from rubber trees, right,
that that same problem,
00:10:45:06 – 00:10:49:16
same problem, and it’s going to it’s
going to change dramatically,
00:10:49:16 – 00:10:53:22
I think, into synthetic materials
or alternative materials
00:10:53:22 – 00:10:57:19
or new ways of thinking about
the core material because
00:10:59:06 – 00:11:01:04
maybe
on smaller blades, balsam makes sense.
00:11:01:04 – 00:11:03:21
I don’t think that there’s
that that many brand new
00:11:04:11 – 00:11:07:15
blade designs
that that have a lot of balsa.
00:11:07:15 – 00:11:10:17
I could be wrong because, you know,
I only know the one manufacturer,
00:11:10:17 – 00:11:15:11
although that they are manufacturing for
many, many other turbine manufacturers.
00:11:15:20 – 00:11:18:10
But yeah, I think you’re right.
00:11:18:12 – 00:11:21:08
Like,
even if we keep the same amount of balsa
00:11:21:15 – 00:11:23:17
but increase number of blades,
then you know, obviously
00:11:23:17 – 00:11:26:17
the amount of balsa is going to increase
and you would need to make sure
00:11:26:17 – 00:11:29:09
that that doesn’t doesn’t happen too
severely.
00:11:29:11 – 00:11:33:21
And I think that there’s already
the strong, strong feedback in the system
00:11:33:21 – 00:11:37:02
where people were in 2019
especially really were affected
00:11:37:02 – 00:11:38:10
by their reliance on balsa wood.
00:11:38:10 – 00:11:41:03
So I think that the message
has got through even.
00:11:41:07 – 00:11:44:14
Well, aside from the environmental impact,
which is important.
00:11:44:14 – 00:11:48:13
But yeah,
there’s a real supply chain problem.
00:11:48:13 – 00:11:52:15
If everyone stays reliant on on Balsa
and I feel like it’d be a risky bet
00:11:52:15 – 00:11:54:16
for a big manufacturer
anyway, where if they’re like, Hey,
00:11:54:16 – 00:11:58:11
we’re going to need a lot more turbines
in five years than we have now.
00:11:58:22 – 00:12:01:23
And, you know, Balsa
has some environmental issues with it.
00:12:01:23 – 00:12:03:14
It could be really bad PR
00:12:03:14 – 00:12:07:10
if if it continues to come
from illegal sources or the rainforest,
00:12:08:11 – 00:12:10:14
maybe we should start making the switch
to the.
00:12:11:06 – 00:12:14:14
Or other sources of foam now and then,
so then at that point,
00:12:14:14 – 00:12:18:05
if some companies are maybe
trying to forecast and switch away early
00:12:18:11 – 00:12:20:12
others, maybe you’re sticking with it
for a little longer.
00:12:20:12 – 00:12:22:03
It’s probably hard to figure out.
00:12:22:03 – 00:12:26:14
Like, do you know, does a company invest
in a new also plantation?
00:12:27:01 – 00:12:28:18
Like, is that a good bet? Like today?
00:12:28:18 – 00:12:32:16
Would you would you want to start
growing new balsa plants or trees?
00:12:32:16 – 00:12:34:21
I don’t know,
because it might not be there at all
00:12:34:21 – 00:12:37:09
if they phase it out
with artificial material.
00:12:37:14 – 00:12:41:07
It’s hard to say, and I should add, it’s
not totally trivial to just swap.
00:12:41:07 – 00:12:43:08
It’s not like
you just keep your blade design
00:12:43:08 – 00:12:45:17
exactly the same
and then it’s up to the foam.
00:12:45:17 – 00:12:50:20
You have to redesign and do a lot more
testing and manufacturers always nervous
00:12:50:20 – 00:12:54:00
to change something like that because,
you know, they’ve got these history
00:12:54:00 – 00:12:58:11
of dozens of different designs
with the old materials.
00:12:58:11 – 00:13:01:05
They know exactly how they behave
in the field, and they’re very confident
00:13:01:05 – 00:13:05:12
that their test test results in the lab
or in test hall .
00:13:05:12 – 00:13:10:07
They’re very confident that that matches
the reality of operational experience.
00:13:10:07 – 00:13:15:03
And so it definitely isn’t something
you can just switch overnight
00:13:15:03 – 00:13:16:14
and you’re actually like,
Oh, hey, we’ve got
00:13:16:14 – 00:13:18:11
we’re also firm
now instead of Rolls Balsa.
00:13:19:12 – 00:13:19:21
Yeah.
00:13:19:21 – 00:13:22:15
So it it takes a while.
00:13:22:15 – 00:13:26:06
And at Elm,
I think they would have worked on it
00:13:26:06 – 00:13:30:12
for around a decade before it was kind of,
you know, like really ready to go on
00:13:31:11 – 00:13:33:17
on four big blades.
00:13:41:08 – 00:13:43:09
So let’s let’s switch
gears here to Germany.
00:13:43:17 – 00:13:47:14
So obviously,
the UK government is supporting
00:13:47:14 – 00:13:50:11
the construction of the country’s
first nuclear power station
00:13:50:11 – 00:13:54:03
and more than two decades, and it’ll be in
south southwestern England.
00:13:54:14 – 00:13:57:04
Yet at the same time, Germany is scaling
00:13:57:04 – 00:14:00:07
back on their nuclear power
in favor of natural gas.
00:14:00:08 – 00:14:04:05
They’re planning to phase out
nuclear in 2022.
00:14:04:14 – 00:14:06:05
Alan, why this shift?
00:14:06:05 – 00:14:10:13
As as some countries, including the U.S.,
are starting to give nuclear
00:14:10:13 – 00:14:11:05
a second chance?
00:14:11:05 – 00:14:14:07
Why is it Germany sort of going
the opposite direction?
00:14:14:22 – 00:14:18:21
It’s part of a political movement,
essentially watching
00:14:18:21 – 00:14:22:05
some news stories come out of Germany
in the nuclear movement.
00:14:22:19 – 00:14:24:00
There’s a big political action.
00:14:24:00 – 00:14:25:21
Remember that Germany not long ago
00:14:25:21 – 00:14:29:17
was East and West Germany,
and they were in the middle of a nuclear
00:14:30:00 – 00:14:33:14
showdown between the
then Soviet Union and the United States.
00:14:34:01 – 00:14:37:00
And the United States
still has troops in Germany,
00:14:37:08 – 00:14:40:06
and that sort of nuclear arms race then
00:14:40:07 – 00:14:43:03
sort of got tied to nuclear power.
00:14:43:10 – 00:14:46:08
And that’s evolved over time,
where nuclear
00:14:46:08 – 00:14:50:22
power, as has been seen
as being more dangerous than coal
00:14:50:22 – 00:14:54:21
plants in some places are more
dangerous than natural gas.
00:14:56:01 – 00:14:56:23
And the
00:14:56:23 – 00:15:00:20
reality is is that nuclear
power kills a lot
00:15:00:20 – 00:15:05:10
less people over its lifetime than coal
or gas or anything else.
00:15:06:07 – 00:15:09:11
It’s one of the safest energy sources
that we have.
00:15:09:18 – 00:15:12:23
So the only explanation we are
all right now is it’s
00:15:12:23 – 00:15:17:12
just part of a political movement,
and political movements can ebb and flow.
00:15:17:12 – 00:15:21:17
And I think the real, real thing
that will drive Germany to rethink
00:15:21:17 – 00:15:26:06
it is really high energy prices
coming from Russia, and
00:15:27:21 – 00:15:30:00
nothing changes the populous opinion.
00:15:30:00 – 00:15:32:09
Then hard times
00:15:32:09 – 00:15:35:21
that’s likely to happen because of
the choices the politicians have made
00:15:36:09 – 00:15:38:15
and then are backed
by the electorate clearly.
00:15:39:05 – 00:15:43:09
And you see the same no country
is immune to this come out in America
00:15:43:09 – 00:15:47:22
when it has gone through
this numerous times and reverse direction.
00:15:48:05 – 00:15:49:03
That’s OK.
00:15:49:03 – 00:15:52:12
I think what my hope is that
Germany doesn’t get too far down the line
00:15:52:12 – 00:15:57:00
where they can’t do it,
or they’re going to have a lot of coal
00:15:57:00 – 00:16:02:12
fired plants to take the gap time
to restart the nuclear growth.
00:16:02:12 – 00:16:06:20
Mideast sees that happening in Germany,
that it’s eventually going to bring arts
00:16:06:20 – 00:16:10:13
and coal plants just to tie them over
so they can put some nuclear back in.
00:16:11:01 – 00:16:12:05
Yeah, maybe.
00:16:12:05 – 00:16:17:11
And I think we probably have already seen
that as they’ve been reducing
00:16:17:14 – 00:16:21:06
nuclear over the last few years
since Fukushima.
00:16:21:18 – 00:16:27:17
I think coal would have been shot down
faster if it wasn’t for.
00:16:27:17 – 00:16:31:18
For that, it’s hard
to, you know, do do both at the same time.
00:16:32:05 – 00:16:35:13
I I don’t have strong feelings
about nuclear.
00:16:35:14 – 00:16:38:20
I think maybe I’m unusual in that respect,
as most people
00:16:38:20 – 00:16:41:17
seem to be very passionate
one way or the other.
00:16:42:03 – 00:16:47:06
I think, yeah, like, like you say,
if you look at the overall safety numbers,
00:16:47:07 – 00:16:49:21
it’s one of, if not the safest
00:16:50:06 – 00:16:54:15
method of generating electricity,
definitely much safer than coal,
00:16:54:15 – 00:16:57:23
which has a lot of deaths associated
from the particulate pollution.
00:16:57:23 – 00:17:01:16
I think it’s millions around the world
each year dying from coal
00:17:01:16 – 00:17:02:19
particulate pollution.
00:17:02:19 – 00:17:05:15
So, you know, it’s it’s better.
00:17:05:16 – 00:17:10:02
And if I was in charge of Germany’s
energy transition,
00:17:10:02 – 00:17:14:01
then I don’t think that I would have
prioritized shutting down nuclear.
00:17:15:02 – 00:17:16:16
Yeah, my main issues with nuclear
00:17:16:16 – 00:17:20:12
are mostly just to do with the cost
and whether it’s the fastest,
00:17:20:13 – 00:17:24:08
cheapest way
that we can move towards decarbonization.
00:17:25:05 – 00:17:27:11
And I know that the British plant
00:17:27:11 – 00:17:30:15
is, you know, it just keeps on
getting more and more and more expensive.
00:17:30:15 – 00:17:33:18
And if you ever get a British
and French person in the room together,
00:17:34:03 – 00:17:36:10
if that energy energy nerds like us,
00:17:36:18 – 00:17:38:16
they’re definitely going
to start talking about nuclear.
00:17:38:16 – 00:17:42:01
And you know, there’s
going to be the Brits.
00:17:42:16 – 00:17:45:23
Some of them don’t feel they feel like
they’ve been a little bit swindled.
00:17:45:23 – 00:17:49:14
I think when it came to this new nuclear
power plant
00:17:49:14 – 00:17:52:23
because it is
just so much more expensive than expected.
00:17:52:23 – 00:17:55:02
And if you look at the price
that they’ve agreed to pay
00:17:55:02 – 00:17:57:13
from the electricity from it, it’s it’s
high.
00:17:57:14 – 00:18:00:14
You know,
no one’s paying that much for offshore
00:18:00:14 – 00:18:04:20
wind or any
any other kind of electricity generation.
00:18:05:10 – 00:18:09:06
And I think in Australia,
I mean, because I’m Australian, I’m
00:18:09:13 – 00:18:10:20
in a slightly different situation.
00:18:10:20 – 00:18:13:07
When we don’t have nuclear, it’s illegal.
00:18:13:15 – 00:18:17:23
Currently, it’s not allowed
by the law that we do develop nuclear.
00:18:18:08 – 00:18:19:16
Maybe we will in the future
00:18:19:16 – 00:18:23:07
since we’ve now got this agreement
to get nuclear submarines.
00:18:23:22 – 00:18:26:17
But yeah, for me,
00:18:27:02 – 00:18:29:02
I’ve never been pro-nuclear for Australia
00:18:29:02 – 00:18:32:02
because I just don’t say
that we could develop that as fast
00:18:32:02 – 00:18:37:02
or as cheaply as we could develop a fully
actually renewable electricity grid.
00:18:37:02 – 00:18:40:07
So that’s my reason for opposing it
in Australia. But.
00:18:40:17 – 00:18:41:16
For places in the world
00:18:41:16 – 00:18:43:04
where they don’t have those constraints,
00:18:43:04 – 00:18:45:20
if they’ve got an existing
nuclear industry,
00:18:45:20 – 00:18:49:08
I think that you make your job harder
by rolling it out, but I definitely think
00:18:49:08 – 00:18:51:20
you can also make a system
that doesn’t use it.
00:18:52:12 – 00:18:54:05
But yeah, it’s
00:18:55:14 – 00:18:55:22
I don’t know.
00:18:55:22 – 00:18:57:23
It comes down to economics
at the end of the day,
00:18:57:23 – 00:19:00:19
like like most of the topics
that we that we talk about.
00:19:01:22 – 00:19:05:09
Well, last topic today
before we get into some 2021
00:19:06:01 – 00:19:08:14
wrap up and some 2022 predictions
00:19:09:02 – 00:19:13:10
is Siemens Gamesa,
so they are accepting bids for
00:19:13:21 – 00:19:17:21
to sell off their wind farm development
unit of their company.
00:19:18:23 – 00:19:20:05
You know, people are saying that this deal
00:19:20:05 – 00:19:23:13
could be worth about €300 million or $340
million.
00:19:24:08 – 00:19:26:19
And Alan, why? Why are they doing this?
00:19:26:19 – 00:19:27:12
Is it just sort of
00:19:27:12 – 00:19:30:22
to focus on their core business
of actually manufacturing turbines
00:19:30:22 – 00:19:33:12
that are trying to get out
of the operation business?
00:19:34:23 – 00:19:39:01
It provides cash to a business
that is using a lot of cash.
00:19:39:16 – 00:19:42:17
And I think you’re going to see, well,
you saw it with GE, right?
00:19:42:17 – 00:19:44:17
You saw GE is going to split into three.
00:19:44:17 – 00:19:46:10
Again, that’s a cash issue.
00:19:47:15 – 00:19:49:13
Vestas is running into cash issues.
00:19:49:13 – 00:19:52:11
I think every wind turbine manufacturers
run into cash issues.
00:19:52:16 – 00:19:55:10
So if you have hard assets
00:19:55:16 – 00:20:00:01
that you can sell off
to, to firm up or to reduce the debt load
00:20:00:01 – 00:20:03:14
you have on your manufacturing business,
you’re going to do that.
00:20:03:21 – 00:20:04:18
What you see?
00:20:04:18 – 00:20:06:20
I’ll give you the example
in the United States.
00:20:06:20 – 00:20:08:12
So Siemens is going to sell off
a basically a
00:20:08:12 – 00:20:11:23
division that does not really core
essential things for them.
00:20:12:07 – 00:20:14:05
But in the United States,
what you’re seeing right now,
00:20:14:05 – 00:20:16:05
because of the prices of real estate,
00:20:16:05 – 00:20:19:08
the companies that own real estate
are selling that real estate
00:20:19:08 – 00:20:22:10
, they’re selling that real estate
and then leasing the office space back.
00:20:22:11 – 00:20:23:23
So if I had an office building
00:20:23:23 – 00:20:27:20
and it was worth 10 million bucks
or 100 million bucks, I would sell it.
00:20:28:02 – 00:20:31:00
I would lease back
my employees back in that same building.
00:20:31:00 – 00:20:32:21
And I keep that cash right.
00:20:32:21 – 00:20:35:10
And that’s what’s happening
across the world right now.
00:20:35:10 – 00:20:38:02
So companies are becoming constrained
00:20:38:02 – 00:20:42:12
because of inflationary pressures
or because of the price drop drop.
00:20:42:12 – 00:20:44:23
Prices of raw materials are going up.
00:20:45:19 – 00:20:48:21
You need to have cash
and that on their back end
00:20:48:21 – 00:20:54:12
because the abilities of you to to borrow
money are going to be limited, I think.
00:20:54:21 – 00:20:58:13
So you want to stash cash,
which is what Siemens
00:20:58:14 – 00:21:02:10
Gamesa is doing
and I think other wind turbine OEMs
00:21:02:10 – 00:21:03:11
are going to be doing
00:21:03:11 – 00:21:05:03
if they’re not doing it right now,
00:21:05:03 – 00:21:07:05
they’re going to be doing it
within the next six months.
00:21:07:15 – 00:21:09:12
I think this makes sense.
00:21:09:12 – 00:21:13:08
Rosemarie, do you see that way
as kind of a lot of these manufacturers
00:21:13:08 – 00:21:14:18
are trying to just weather this storm
00:21:14:18 – 00:21:17:01
where their margins have gotten thin
and inflation’s
00:21:17:10 – 00:21:19:17
putting more pressure on them
and the supply chain issues?
00:21:19:17 – 00:21:21:12
You think maybe more this will be coming?
00:21:21:12 – 00:21:23:09
Yeah, probably.
00:21:23:09 – 00:21:26:02
But it’s kind of a short term
fix, isn’t it?
00:21:26:02 – 00:21:30:11
I mean, do we expect that the margins
are going to go up again
00:21:30:11 – 00:21:33:13
on wind turbines
and, you know, in five years?
00:21:34:06 – 00:21:37:16
I actually have been changing my mind
a little bit on this topic over
00:21:37:21 – 00:21:39:07
the last couple of months.
00:21:39:07 – 00:21:42:13
And partly it’s because
coming back to Australia, they have a bit
00:21:42:13 – 00:21:46:12
of a different model here of development
00:21:46:12 – 00:21:49:13
and ownership operation of wind farms.
00:21:49:21 – 00:21:51:17
It’s nearly always there
00:21:51:17 – 00:21:55:11
the manufacturers, the OEMs
that get the service agreement.
00:21:55:17 – 00:21:58:11
And I actually listened to an interview
with somebody
00:21:58:11 – 00:22:02:00
from from Vestas Australia recently,
and he was saying that,
00:22:02:07 – 00:22:06:09
you know, there’s a way
bigger margin on their service,
00:22:07:00 – 00:22:11:14
their service division
than there is on the turbines themselves.
00:22:12:00 – 00:22:14:12
And so I can see that,
00:22:15:06 – 00:22:18:16
you know, going forward, it might be more,
you know, like when you buy a printer,
00:22:18:19 – 00:22:21:14
the printer itself is really cheap,
but then you pay
00:22:21:22 – 00:22:24:07
a lot of money
for the cartridges that you put in it.
00:22:24:14 – 00:22:26:05
And I wonder if you know
00:22:26:05 – 00:22:29:03
they gave up on having this price pressure
on wind turbines.
00:22:29:08 – 00:22:34:07
I was going to say the same kinds
of business models develop in the industry
00:22:34:07 – 00:22:38:05
where people accept the higher wind
turbine itself has become basically
00:22:38:05 – 00:22:42:01
like a commodity and, you know,
they feel interchangeable to the market.
00:22:42:19 – 00:22:46:02
So then we need to make
our money off of service.
00:22:47:04 – 00:22:50:12
And I haven’t seen people
selling off their service divisions yet,
00:22:50:12 – 00:22:53:12
but it does feel like,
you know, the development could be
00:22:53:12 – 00:22:56:14
could be part of that as well,
because I think that there’s also
00:22:56:23 – 00:23:01:21
some innovations to be more innovations
to be made in the development
00:23:01:21 – 00:23:05:00
and construction and service part
than there is actually
00:23:05:00 – 00:23:07:13
in the wind turbine itself.
00:23:08:09 – 00:23:11:12
I think there’s a lot of inefficiencies
in the way that projects are run
00:23:11:12 – 00:23:15:04
and the order
that construction projects get get done.
00:23:15:09 – 00:23:18:06
Sometimes, you know, like you
bring in the person to build the roads
00:23:18:06 – 00:23:20:03
after you’ve got the whole wind
farm laid out
00:23:20:03 – 00:23:22:14
and they’re like , Oh, well, yeah,
I can do it, but it’s going
00:23:22:14 – 00:23:25:18
be really expensive to to build the roads
where you think they’re going to go.
00:23:25:18 – 00:23:30:01
If you got us involved a few years ago,
that could have done this much cheaper.
00:23:30:01 – 00:23:32:02
And I mean, that’s just one tiny example.
00:23:32:02 – 00:23:35:08
I feel like there’s opportunities
to go through and really
00:23:37:05 – 00:23:39:22
develop
a instead of just using construction
00:23:39:22 – 00:23:43:21
methods from, you know,
every other kind of construction project.
00:23:43:21 – 00:23:45:14
If we could get somebody that was,
00:23:45:14 – 00:23:48:15
you know, like really doing
the whole project from start to finish
00:23:48:15 – 00:23:52:03
and developing
wind turbine wind farm specific
00:23:53:23 – 00:23:55:04
technologies.
00:23:55:04 – 00:23:58:08
I think that there’s some some money
to be saved there.
00:23:58:08 – 00:24:02:02
And I personally, I think that’s
where the main cost reductions for
00:24:02:12 – 00:24:04:09
for wind
energy is going to come in the future.
00:24:04:09 – 00:24:07:10
It’s going to be from the construction
and from the operation and service.
00:24:07:10 – 00:24:10:21
So yeah, I think it would be interesting.
00:24:10:21 – 00:24:14:10
I hope that we see somebody, you know,
go in that direction and try and,
00:24:14:20 – 00:24:18:04
you know, think about the whole lifetime
of the wind farm
00:24:18:04 – 00:24:22:05
as a holistic thing and see how it can get
improved efficiencies there.
00:24:22:06 – 00:24:26:07
So I hope everybody doesn’t
doesn’t fill up their development part,
00:24:26:07 – 00:24:29:16
and I hope people get the service as well.
00:24:30:01 – 00:24:32:07
Yeah, you don’t really see this
in other industries.
00:24:32:07 – 00:24:33:23
I mean, even Apple.
00:24:33:23 – 00:24:37:15
Bill, which has great margins
on their phones or laptops, or
00:24:37:16 – 00:24:40:02
you pay a premium for Apple stuff,
00:24:40:22 – 00:24:43:08
especially when you compare it
to like a similar , you know,
00:24:43:09 – 00:24:48:03
Windows computer, even they like,
they want recurring revenue, right?
00:24:48:03 – 00:24:50:02
They want that stability.
00:24:50:02 – 00:24:51:21
You see this
with all sorts of hardware products,
00:24:51:21 – 00:24:53:09
especially the ones that are more durable,
00:24:53:09 – 00:24:55:12
that don’t have like the planned
obsolescence in it.
00:24:56:08 – 00:24:59:06
There’s a baseball product
that’s a couple of thousand dollars that’s
00:24:59:06 – 00:25:00:19
marketed mostly to coaches,
00:25:01:21 – 00:25:04:20
and they it’s
clear to me that they have a tough time
00:25:05:01 – 00:25:07:16
getting more revenue out of these people
after they’ve sold them all one.
00:25:08:17 – 00:25:09:03
They don’t like.
00:25:09:03 – 00:25:12:08
So they’ve been upping their subscription
things as a site example.
00:25:12:08 – 00:25:14:03
But you see this all over
where people are.
00:25:14:03 – 00:25:15:05
Yeah, we’ve made hardware.
00:25:15:05 – 00:25:17:20
If we make really good hardware,
we sell at once
00:25:18:07 – 00:25:20:00
and then we got to find more customers
where it’s
00:25:20:00 – 00:25:22:05
probably easier
just to continue to extract cash
00:25:22:05 – 00:25:26:10
from your existing customers
rather than continue to find new new ones.
00:25:27:16 – 00:25:28:19
Yeah. So I don’t know.
00:25:28:19 – 00:25:31:12
I think, yeah,
I think try to be well-rounded.
00:25:31:12 – 00:25:33:11
You want to keep all these arms.
00:25:33:11 – 00:25:35:09
But maybe it’s just a short term thing.
00:25:35:09 – 00:25:36:00
I don’t know, Alan.
00:25:36:00 – 00:25:40:09
I mean, have you either of you heard about
the McFlurry thing the FCC in the U.S.
00:25:40:11 – 00:25:41:00
in the U.S.
00:25:41:00 – 00:25:45:06
is actually investigating McDonald’s
and this company,
00:25:45:13 – 00:25:48:12
Taylor, that manufactures
ICE, their ice cream machines.
00:25:48:12 – 00:25:49:13
Have either of you heard the story?
00:25:49:13 – 00:25:51:11
No, no.
00:25:51:11 – 00:25:54:03
Well, there’s a really interesting
YouTube video about this.
00:25:54:03 – 00:25:55:12
If you know McDonald’s,
00:25:55:12 – 00:25:59:01
you know that their ice cream machines
are kind of constantly broken, right?
00:25:59:14 – 00:26:01:22
Right? Yeah,
they’re manufactured by this company.
00:26:01:22 – 00:26:06:05
Taylor, which manufactures Wendy’s like
all the other places, ice cream machines.
00:26:06:05 – 00:26:09:02
Theirs are almost never broken,
like 1% downtime.
00:26:09:02 – 00:26:11:12
McDonald’s is like 15% downtime.
00:26:11:12 – 00:26:13:17
Someone looked into this,
and it seems like there’s some
00:26:13:17 – 00:26:17:00
real serious collusion between McDonald’s
and this company
00:26:17:14 – 00:26:20:22
about keeping them broken
because there’s like a 30 or 40 million
00:26:20:22 – 00:26:24:13
dollar service contract that they
that they made like a significant chunk
00:26:24:13 – 00:26:28:16
of their money on service because of these
broken McDonald’s machines.
00:26:29:04 – 00:26:32:21
And the FCC is now looking into it,
which is so funny that they’re like
00:26:32:21 – 00:26:38:06
the FCC is sending an investigation
about their ice cream machines.
00:26:38:12 – 00:26:40:08
But it’s a real thing.
It’s it’s really fascinating.
00:26:40:08 – 00:26:43:06
There’s a really good YouTube video
I’ll link to in the description.
00:26:43:07 – 00:26:44:06
It’s very fascinating
00:26:44:06 – 00:26:48:19
if you like McDonald’s outfit sundaes,
but I can totally believe that.
00:26:49:04 – 00:26:51:21
Well, you know, that raises
an interesting point, actually,
00:26:51:21 – 00:26:57:00
that you’re talking about
really a subscription model
00:26:57:10 – 00:27:00:18
for wind turbine operations or how do you
how do you do that?
00:27:00:18 – 00:27:03:14
You provide the service
right, becomes a subscription model
00:27:03:21 – 00:27:07:16
because you have to continually pay
to keep your wind turbine serviced, right?
00:27:08:02 – 00:27:10:02
So you’re going to get that contract year
after year after year.
00:27:10:02 – 00:27:14:08
I think if you have look for wind
turbine parts online
00:27:14:15 – 00:27:18:08
or a wind turbine repair manuals online,
there is zero.
00:27:18:13 – 00:27:19:03
All right.
00:27:19:03 – 00:27:23:07
That’s
that’s unusual in the sense that active,
00:27:23:14 – 00:27:26:14
you have to actively try
to keep this stuff off the web
00:27:27:13 – 00:27:30:07
because you got manuals and people
00:27:30:07 – 00:27:33:18
and just thousands of thousands of people
who have access to that stuff.
00:27:34:21 – 00:27:35:21
So in the airplane world,
00:27:35:21 – 00:27:39:22
you see manuals come up on on
Boeing airplanes or Airbus airplanes.
00:27:40:09 – 00:27:43:21
But you see Zippo zero about wind turbine
00:27:44:15 – 00:27:46:22
design features, schematics,
00:27:48:11 – 00:27:49:17
repairs.
00:27:49:17 – 00:27:51:15
That’s not available on the web.
00:27:51:15 – 00:27:54:10
And that tells you
that it has a huge value
00:27:54:10 – 00:27:59:05
that there’s there’s been
a conscientious effort to keep that stuff
00:27:59:10 – 00:28:02:10
like behind lock and key,
and that’s a pay subscription only.
00:28:02:22 – 00:28:06:19
That tells you that there’s a huge
amount of value in that service, right?
00:28:06:19 – 00:28:10:13
And that the OEMs want to control that,
that service market.
00:28:11:00 – 00:28:16:09
And that’s what is fascinating, I think,
because it’s sort of a different thing.
00:28:16:09 – 00:28:18:13
If I’m an airplane owner,
I own the manuals.
00:28:18:13 – 00:28:20:18
I get the manuals with the
with the airplane
00:28:20:18 – 00:28:23:05
and I get to kind of do my own thing
a little bit.
00:28:23:22 – 00:28:28:11
You’re seeing the wind turbine industry
kind of go away from that, that
00:28:28:18 – 00:28:33:12
what if Vestas sells a wind turbine versus
is going to maintain a wind turbine?
00:28:33:14 – 00:28:37:13
You’re going to be paying Vestas for the
20 year lifespan of the of the turbine,
00:28:37:13 – 00:28:41:11
and that may be a totally agreeable
by both sides situation.
00:28:41:22 – 00:28:45:19
But it just makes sure that there’s
no outside repair companies.
00:28:47:01 – 00:28:48:03
Now there’s been a huge
00:28:48:03 – 00:28:51:04
consolidation, I think, in wind turbine
repair companies because of it.
00:28:51:14 – 00:28:53:17
And it does help.
00:28:54:06 – 00:28:55:10
And Rosemary is right.
00:28:55:10 – 00:28:59:13
It does help the bottom line long term
because you go into more of
00:28:59:17 – 00:29:03:07
a subscription model, which every business
is being pushed into right now.
00:29:03:07 – 00:29:09:09
So I don’t see wind turbines, operators,
OEMs backing away from the repair market.
00:29:09:09 – 00:29:11:18
If anything,
they’re going to get more constructive
00:29:12:01 – 00:29:15:23
and maybe not let anybody else
or DePaul warranties
00:29:15:23 – 00:29:20:00
on their turbines
of somebody else, a non GE person.
00:29:20:07 – 00:29:22:10
Repairs are turbot
00:29:22:11 – 00:29:25:12
that’s already happened
in the United States, and I don’t think
00:29:25:12 – 00:29:26:08
they’re going to go away with that
00:29:26:08 – 00:29:29:10
because the margins are getting so tight
that they need to control that.
00:29:29:15 – 00:29:31:15
I just say that they do.
00:29:31:16 – 00:29:35:05
You do get a manual
and you buy a wind turbine.
00:29:35:07 – 00:29:38:02
Do you do you get a manual
for the yeah, for the blade?
00:29:38:02 – 00:29:44:00
And if it’s got a deicing system
that it has a deicing manual that was
00:29:44:00 – 00:29:48:19
partially produced by my own blood, sweat
and tears in many, many cases?
00:29:48:22 – 00:29:53:14
So yeah, I I don’t know why they haven’t
found their way onto the internet
00:29:53:14 – 00:29:57:22
because I definitely I mean, other
than in Australia, there are plenty of
00:29:58:12 – 00:30:03:07
owner operators that have nothing to do
with, you know, with the OEM.
00:30:03:08 – 00:30:08:06
So I could say, what’s what’s stopping
them from putting it up on the internet?
00:30:08:06 – 00:30:11:11
Maybe they, you know, very often
they’re not writing them.
00:30:11:11 – 00:30:12:02
I know that.
00:30:12:02 – 00:30:13:01
I know that for sure.
00:30:13:01 – 00:30:14:07
They’re like, Oh man, you’re
00:30:14:07 – 00:30:16:12
okay with this when they have a problem
a few years later.
00:30:17:05 – 00:30:18:04
Yeah, yeah.
00:30:18:04 – 00:30:19:08
That maintenance manual
00:30:19:08 – 00:30:21:21
had a whole bunch of things
that you’re supposed to do if you want to.
00:30:22:05 – 00:30:25:17
If you wanted to keep your warranty like,
Oh yeah, right now and now, we didn’t
00:30:25:17 – 00:30:26:20
do any maintenance, and I
00:30:27:21 – 00:30:31:05
say, yeah,
maybe that that’s the conspiracy
00:30:31:05 – 00:30:36:11
is that people find these documents
very boring and just don’t look at them.
00:30:36:16 – 00:30:40:08
I can confirm that they are boring
possible, but anything that has value
00:30:40:08 – 00:30:42:12
like a wind turbine
where it’s a couple of million dollars
00:30:42:12 – 00:30:45:08
to buy the thing
the manual is worth something.
00:30:45:08 – 00:30:48:01
And weirdly enough,
you’d never see manuals online.
00:30:48:01 – 00:30:52:04
And I can go on to the technicians forums
and I can see technicians asking
00:30:52:04 – 00:30:55:08
every day, Is
anybody have a schematic for x y z?
00:30:55:08 – 00:30:58:06
Does anybody have the repair manual
for this bearing configuration
00:30:58:16 – 00:31:02:17
or for this oil cooler or whatever it is,
you just don’t see it right?
00:31:02:22 – 00:31:05:13
I think in every other part of humanity,
00:31:05:21 – 00:31:10:17
I can find a manual for my refrigerator
that was manufactured in 1990.
00:31:10:23 – 00:31:14:00
Right now, that doesn’t make any sense
when I can’t find
00:31:14:07 – 00:31:16:17
something from a wind
turbine manufacturer in 2000.
00:31:17:09 – 00:31:18:22
There’s something going on there.
00:31:18:22 – 00:31:20:12
I’m not a conspiracy theorist here,
00:31:20:12 – 00:31:24:00
but it does seem like there’s
a lot of controls about what gets out.
00:31:24:01 – 00:31:25:13
I would disagree.
00:31:25:13 – 00:31:28:10
I mean, maybe your 1990 refrigerator
00:31:28:10 – 00:31:31:21
the no one cares about
or even mayor is still running.
00:31:31:21 – 00:31:34:09
But the right to repair
movement in the U.S.
00:31:34:14 – 00:31:37:05
is like actually getting some steam
now because
00:31:37:23 – 00:31:41:12
I mean, with your Apple product
or a car or a John Deere tractor
00:31:41:12 – 00:31:45:11
like people like I own a 250,000 dollar
combine.
00:31:45:23 – 00:31:48:13
Farmers are right at the forefront of this
right to repair movement
00:31:48:15 – 00:31:51:11
like I own this quarter quarter
Million Dollar Carmine.
00:31:51:11 – 00:31:53:15
I’m not allowed to fix it. Yeah,
they’ll take me to.
00:31:54:01 – 00:31:57:13
And this is starting
to move in in Congress.
00:31:58:00 – 00:32:00:04
And there’s actually a couple of prominent
YouTubers.
00:32:00:11 – 00:32:04:16
one specifically, Louis Rossman,
who’s a computer repair
00:32:04:16 – 00:32:08:17
guy in in New York, has a huge YouTube
following, and he’s been like really
00:32:08:17 – 00:32:10:16
using his platform
to push right to repair.
00:32:10:16 – 00:32:14:10
Because, yeah, whether it’s a turbine
or an iPhone, it’s like, I own it.
00:32:14:15 – 00:32:16:04
Why can’t I fix it?
00:32:16:04 – 00:32:19:13
And you’re right
that they want to keep these this valuable
00:32:20:11 – 00:32:22:18
intellectual property locked up
so that you have to pay
00:32:22:18 – 00:32:25:23
technicians
and pay their their rates and all that.
00:32:25:23 – 00:32:27:06
So. Right?
00:32:27:06 – 00:32:29:21
That’s exactly all that foot,
how all that flushes out.
00:32:29:23 – 00:32:30:16
And it’s interesting.
00:32:30:16 – 00:32:31:01
The right Joe
00:32:31:01 – 00:32:34:05
Premiere movements are really interesting
to follow in the U.S., so let’s just.
00:32:34:08 – 00:32:36:14
To end of your questions.
00:32:36:14 – 00:32:40:03
Number one, we’re going to get right
into it, Rosemary, so with you
00:32:40:07 – 00:32:43:20
most surprising development
in wind energy or renewable energy
00:32:43:20 – 00:32:46:05
in general here in 2021?
00:32:47:03 – 00:32:47:11
Yeah.
00:32:47:11 – 00:32:51:19
OK, so mine is mostly a solar solar thing,
but also a bit wind.
00:32:51:22 – 00:32:55:03
So it’s about the South
Australian electricity grid,
00:32:55:03 – 00:32:59:23
which is it’s connected to the rest of the
the east side of Australia.
00:32:59:23 – 00:33:01:11
But they kind of, you know, it’s
00:33:01:11 – 00:33:05:07
got a couple of interconnectors,
so it’s a gigawatt scale grid.
00:33:05:15 – 00:33:09:11
And so I think it was actually in 2020
that for the very first time,
00:33:09:16 – 00:33:14:05
it became the first gigawatt scale
grid in the world to run purely off solar.
00:33:15:09 – 00:33:17:15
And so it just it’s done that a few times.
00:33:17:15 – 00:33:20:02
And then if you look, we’ve got to
00:33:20:02 – 00:33:23:11
you can look at this website called Open
Nym and see what
00:33:23:11 – 00:33:27:19
the current mix of electricity
of electricity generation sources is.
00:33:28:10 – 00:33:33:17
If you go on the South Australian grid
I saw last Sunday from 7:30 a.m.
00:33:33:17 – 00:33:37:16
to 7:30 p.m., it was
they were making more than enough wind
00:33:37:16 – 00:33:41:10
and solar power to power that grid,
so they were exporting some.
00:33:42:12 – 00:33:46:16
So even it’s got a huge proportion of
that is from rooftop solar.
00:33:46:18 – 00:33:51:22
So their record for rooftop
solar is 88.7% of South
00:33:51:22 – 00:33:55:11
Australian demand
was met by rooftop solar on its own,
00:33:55:18 – 00:34:00:00
and they’re expecting that sometime soon
that’s going to reach 100%.
00:34:00:16 – 00:34:02:23
The grid overall
00:34:03:13 – 00:34:07:14
was in the last twelve months, 62.3%
wind and solar.
00:34:07:15 – 00:34:09:17
So I mean,
we have a lot of grids in the world
00:34:09:17 – 00:34:11:17
that are close to 100% renewable.
00:34:11:17 – 00:34:15:21
But I always use a whole lot of hydro
and sometimes geothermal,
00:34:15:21 – 00:34:19:10
which are much easier to handle as
00:34:20:10 – 00:34:22:11
an electricity source because
00:34:22:11 – 00:34:25:16
they’re all hydro places controllable
00:34:26:17 – 00:34:28:20
and they’re, yeah, more constant.
00:34:28:21 – 00:34:33:20
So I think South Australian grid
is really changing what people think
00:34:33:20 – 00:34:39:00
is possible for full variable
for grid served by variable renewables.
00:34:39:16 – 00:34:42:06
And one thing that is going
00:34:42:06 – 00:34:46:00
to come next year,
probably in the same grid, is
00:34:46:11 – 00:34:49:21
currently
you need to have a couple of gas turbines
00:34:50:02 – 00:34:53:19
turning for the inertia
to keep the frequency of the grid correct,
00:34:54:05 – 00:34:57:02
and they are actually looking
at getting a few.
00:34:58:13 – 00:35:02:02
Right now, they’re that commissioning
for synchronous condensers,
00:35:02:02 – 00:35:05:04
which is a way to artificially well
without.
00:35:05:19 – 00:35:09:05
It’s a way to set the grid frequency
without having any kind
00:35:09:05 – 00:35:11:02
of thermal generation in the system.
00:35:11:02 – 00:35:15:12
So I think probably next year we’ll see
periods where the grid is operating
00:35:15:18 – 00:35:18:19
without any kind of fossil fuel in it
whatsoever.
00:35:18:22 – 00:35:23:14
And I think that’s really exciting
because it shows what you can do
00:35:23:14 – 00:35:26:19
with purely variables,
which I think a lot of people
00:35:26:19 – 00:35:30:20
would be surprised to to see
that you can already take it that far
00:35:31:05 – 00:35:34:17
62.3% wind and solar
over the last twelve months.
00:35:34:18 – 00:35:38:02
So, yeah, I’m really excited for
what’s happening there.
00:35:38:18 – 00:35:43:04
Alan, I think there have been
two big changes over the last year.
00:35:43:18 – 00:35:49:20
first is recycling that we went
from essentially burying all blades
00:35:50:19 – 00:35:51:01
in the
00:35:51:01 – 00:35:54:11
springtime of this year
to now massively pushing
00:35:54:11 – 00:35:58:17
recycling around the world,
and that happened in a matter of weeks.
00:35:58:20 – 00:36:03:08
I think I think the engineers behind
it were working for years before
00:36:03:13 – 00:36:05:21
it had to like,
get the go button and say, All right,
00:36:05:21 – 00:36:08:18
we’ve got to turn it on
because the PR and the press is bad.
00:36:09:02 – 00:36:11:19
So we’re needed to blade recycling on.
00:36:12:11 – 00:36:12:22
Great.
00:36:12:22 – 00:36:15:22
That’s a fantastic
technological improvement
00:36:15:22 – 00:36:21:01
because it does remove a lot of things
in the landfill and the second is floating
00:36:21:01 – 00:36:24:01
wind and we’re just really
getting started with it.
00:36:24:09 – 00:36:28:20
But there’s still a lot of technology
that needs to be sussed out.
00:36:29:04 – 00:36:33:00
There’s some interesting concepts
we’re going to be doing some of them
00:36:33:00 – 00:36:37:16
in the next year or two or three off
the coast of the United States.
00:36:37:16 – 00:36:40:23
And obviously
there are some being developed elsewhere.
00:36:41:07 – 00:36:43:18
But the floating wind
is going to be fascinating because
00:36:44:07 – 00:36:48:16
there’s
just so many slightly different variations
00:36:48:16 – 00:36:50:13
to solving the same problem
00:36:50:13 – 00:36:53:02
which one is going to be
the most effective, we still don’t know.
00:36:53:21 – 00:36:58:00
So the engineers are going to be working
overtime to to figure that all out.
00:36:58:08 – 00:37:00:06
All right,
let’s go to a quick question here.
00:37:01:05 – 00:37:02:20
So in 2022,
00:37:02:20 – 00:37:06:13
Rosemarie, do you see that we’ll have more
development of wind of wind farms?
00:37:06:13 – 00:37:10:14
Or will we see some sort of
slow down or plateau because of inflation
00:37:10:14 – 00:37:11:18
and some of these other pressures
00:37:11:18 – 00:37:14:20
on cost and supply chain
that we’ve seen with developers?
00:37:15:01 – 00:37:17:13
I think we’ll see more and more and more
00:37:17:20 – 00:37:20:19
every single year
for another couple of decades.
00:37:20:20 – 00:37:22:12
That’s my prediction.
00:37:22:12 – 00:37:27:07
I think that the forces driving increased
00:37:28:05 – 00:37:32:00
construction are stronger than the forces
that are holding it back.
00:37:32:00 – 00:37:35:21
So I think we will see
an effect of the supply chain
00:37:35:21 – 00:37:39:02
issues with costs,
but not with speed of rollout.
00:37:39:04 – 00:37:41:12
That’s my prediction on inflation
be damned.
00:37:41:12 – 00:37:46:00
Alan, there’s going to be more leases
and there’s more land acquisitions,
00:37:46:06 – 00:37:51:13
but leases offshore that will continue
to ramp up its already accelerated pace.
00:37:52:16 – 00:37:53:10
I think in
00:37:53:10 – 00:37:56:10
terms of
installs, that’s not going to slow down.
00:37:56:10 – 00:37:58:14
I think they’re going to try to
00:37:58:21 – 00:38:01:21
find the least costly way
to get these turbines
00:38:01:21 – 00:38:05:09
into the water, which will typically mean
going a little bit slower.
00:38:05:09 – 00:38:08:18
So although you’re going to see
the development happen,
00:38:08:18 – 00:38:11:20
it’s not going to happen
as rapidly as we may like, I think.
00:38:12:03 – 00:38:16:04
The second piece of
this is the involvement of Chinese based
00:38:16:14 – 00:38:23:03
wind turbine manufacturers in Europe
and possibly in the United States.
00:38:23:04 – 00:38:24:15
We’re already seeing it this week
00:38:24:15 – 00:38:27:13
with the announcement
that one of the Chinese manufacturers.
00:38:27:19 – 00:38:30:18
There’s talk about building a wind
turbine manufacturing
00:38:30:18 – 00:38:33:19
site in the U.K., and it’s already
got approval from the U.K.
00:38:33:19 – 00:38:34:21
government.
00:38:34:21 – 00:38:38:09
There’s going to be more of that, assuming
more of a push as prices are driven down
00:38:38:09 – 00:38:43:00
and there’s less margins, you’re
going to see China step into that void.
00:38:43:00 – 00:38:46:11
So there’s a you’re
going to see more development.
00:38:46:11 – 00:38:49:18
But the really interesting piece,
I think, is going to be the China aspect
00:38:49:18 – 00:38:51:17
and how countries
are going to deal with that.
00:38:51:17 – 00:38:54:17
We should make a bet
and check back in next year.
00:38:55:02 – 00:38:58:14
No, but we’re talking onshore
plus offshore, right?
00:38:58:22 – 00:39:03:16
We have more and more gigawatts
installed in 2022 than 21. Then
00:39:05:00 – 00:39:05:17
we will.
00:39:06:19 – 00:39:07:22
No, I mean,
00:39:11:08 – 00:39:13:04
how does that work?
00:39:13:08 – 00:39:15:20
These are there’s going to be less
you said it’s going to slow down.
00:39:16:03 – 00:39:18:09
No, I think there’s less giggles, I think.
00:39:18:10 – 00:39:23:01
Well, well, they’re talking about they’re
talking about ten, 30 gigawatts by 2030.
00:39:23:05 – 00:39:24:00
They’re going to get there,
00:39:24:00 – 00:39:25:13
but it’s not going to happen
in the first couple of years.
00:39:25:13 – 00:39:27:20
It’s going to be a ramp towards 2030.
00:39:27:20 – 00:39:30:06
They’re going to wait
until the economic conditions are better.
00:39:30:15 – 00:39:35:14
Do you think there’ll be more gigawatts
installed in 2022 than they were in 2021
00:39:36:02 – 00:39:36:21
or less?
00:39:36:21 – 00:39:39:08
It’s going to be roughly the same,
or maybe a little bit less
00:39:39:12 – 00:39:43:22
if inflation is at seven to 9% like
it’s about to be in the United States.
00:39:43:23 – 00:39:45:07
You will see less.
00:39:45:07 – 00:39:45:21
I think you’ll see
00:39:45:21 – 00:39:49:17
a lot of refurbishment happen
that take an existing wind turbines,
00:39:50:06 – 00:39:53:10
putting new generators and blades on
because that’s a least expensive option.
00:39:53:21 – 00:39:55:04
Onshore will happen.
00:39:55:04 – 00:39:57:22
Offshore is a little bit different animal
00:39:57:22 – 00:40:00:23
because you have the federal government
pouring so much cash into it
00:40:00:23 – 00:40:04:08
in the United States
that it may balance out anyway.
00:40:04:08 – 00:40:06:15
There may be enough
profit entities to keep going,
00:40:07:16 – 00:40:09:16
but inflationary pressures are real
00:40:09:20 – 00:40:13:01
and they will slow down an economy
greatly,
00:40:14:01 – 00:40:17:01
especially if we just announced in
the United States, you’re going to have,
00:40:17:02 – 00:40:20:17
I think, three or four scheduled increases
00:40:20:17 – 00:40:23:18
in interest rates,
00:40:23:18 – 00:40:25:09
interest rates which banks get charged
00:40:25:09 – 00:40:28:17
by the federal government, essentially,
or what banks can charge themselves.
00:40:29:04 – 00:40:31:22
So that has pressure on everything.
00:40:32:06 – 00:40:35:18
And having lived through a couple
of those, it’s going to slow down.
00:40:36:02 – 00:40:37:13
The question is how much?
00:40:37:13 – 00:40:39:20
OK, well, I propose.
00:40:39:20 – 00:40:43:06
100 dollar
Ben and Jerry’s gift card as the wager.
00:40:43:11 – 00:40:44:16
And if you guys don’t want it,
00:40:44:16 – 00:40:47:17
whoever the winner is,
you could just give it to me, you know?
00:40:48:00 – 00:40:49:11
No big deal.
00:40:50:13 – 00:40:50:20
All right.
00:40:50:20 – 00:40:52:11
Moving on and a question for
00:40:52:11 – 00:40:56:01
where do you think we’ll see
the biggest job growth in 2022?
00:40:56:01 – 00:40:58:06
It being in technicians or engineers?
00:40:58:22 – 00:41:01:09
Do you see like obviously,
there’s been a big push for
00:41:02:02 – 00:41:04:11
more diversity in the workforce?
00:41:04:11 – 00:41:07:18
Do you see more female engineers
or engineers of color?
00:41:07:19 – 00:41:10:10
Like what do you see
flowing into wind energy next year?
00:41:11:06 – 00:41:14:13
I think, yes,
lots more service technicians.
00:41:14:13 – 00:41:18:02
But what I say in terms of engineers,
lots more in operations.
00:41:18:02 – 00:41:20:15
I know I get asked a lot
by a lot of people.
00:41:20:15 – 00:41:24:08
Do I know engineers with electrical
or renewables
00:41:24:08 – 00:41:27:10
background that want to come work
on their operations team?
00:41:27:11 – 00:41:29:02
So anyone with that background
00:41:29:02 – 00:41:31:22
should get in touch because I know
lots of people that want to hire you.
00:41:32:20 – 00:41:35:04
I think that we’re going to see people
00:41:35:04 – 00:41:39:02
get a lot more smart
about operations in Australia.
00:41:39:02 – 00:41:41:03
And I assume elsewhere it’s
00:41:41:03 – 00:41:45:02
really changing the way that wind farms
need to be operated to make a profit.
00:41:45:03 – 00:41:49:17
And it’s not as as easy as it used to be
because we do
00:41:49:17 – 00:41:53:11
see a lot of negative prices now
or at least periods of very low prices.
00:41:53:11 – 00:41:57:18
And people really want to get smart
about how they’re operating these assets
00:41:57:19 – 00:41:58:19
to make money.
00:41:58:19 – 00:42:03:01
And I think that that is a really big,
big growth area
00:42:03:23 – 00:42:06:02
in terms of more diversity.
00:42:06:02 – 00:42:08:11
I wish I would love that the last.
00:42:08:19 – 00:42:13:04
When the energy conference I was at
was shocking, shockingly male dominated.
00:42:13:04 – 00:42:16:18
It really did take my breath away
when I walked into the room
00:42:16:18 – 00:42:20:16
the first time and I
I was followed around by the photographer
00:42:20:16 – 00:42:24:12
just to make sure that there were
some women in their photos from the event.
00:42:26:10 – 00:42:28:22
Yeah, but I mean, it’s not fast, right?
00:42:28:22 – 00:42:34:11
It’s you can’t just conjure women
and people of color
00:42:34:14 – 00:42:39:00
with ten years experience in the industry,
you can’t conjure them.
00:42:39:00 – 00:42:40:02
It takes time.
00:42:40:02 – 00:42:45:05
And I don’t see that much commitment
00:42:45:18 – 00:42:48:07
to getting that pipeline in place
00:42:48:07 – 00:42:52:08
and making it a more pleasant
working environment.
00:42:52:08 – 00:42:55:18
It’s, you know, it’s it’s
rough to be a minority at work.
00:42:55:19 – 00:42:59:03
People who haven’t ever been
might not realize just how much it can
00:42:59:13 – 00:43:03:21
just grind you down
just from being culturally different
00:43:04:06 – 00:43:06:02
every every single day.
00:43:06:02 – 00:43:10:04
And I I don’t really see a lot of change
happening.
00:43:11:09 – 00:43:14:09
We’re moving in the right direction, but
I don’t think it’s fast, and I wouldn’t
00:43:14:13 – 00:43:17:00
I wouldn’t expect a noticeable difference
in the next twelve months.
00:43:18:03 – 00:43:20:07
Rosemary raises some good points, I
00:43:21:07 – 00:43:24:20
it’s it’s it’s interesting
your viewpoint on that, rosemary,
00:43:25:01 – 00:43:28:15
because, you know, working in
wind is not easy.
00:43:28:22 – 00:43:31:01
first off, it’s just an outdoor job.
00:43:31:01 – 00:43:34:22
It’s a lot of lifting,
especially if you’re climbing a lot
00:43:35:05 – 00:43:36:13
and working on ropes.
00:43:36:13 – 00:43:39:05
That’s it’s
physically a very challenging thing,
00:43:39:05 – 00:43:42:08
and very few people on
this planet can even do that.
00:43:43:02 – 00:43:46:07
So that kind of narrows
the scope of who was able to even
00:43:47:10 – 00:43:49:11
try it, honestly.
00:43:49:11 – 00:43:51:23
So I think that that role
00:43:53:05 – 00:43:57:05
will be limited into the physically
strong people that so it’s going to be.
00:43:57:16 – 00:44:00:15
I think the growth area,
though, is really in
00:44:00:15 – 00:44:05:18
places like project in the project side
and in some development side,
00:44:06:02 – 00:44:10:16
there seems to be a lot of different
companies,
00:44:11:13 – 00:44:14:00
investment groups
that are looking into development.
00:44:14:05 – 00:44:15:23
So I think you’re going to see
00:44:15:23 – 00:44:18:12
more chairs, people
I think are going to see more lawyers.
00:44:18:12 – 00:44:23:03
I think you’re also going to see more kind
of project engineers and management
00:44:23:16 – 00:44:28:11
types that are trying to manage
all these moving pieces,
00:44:28:19 – 00:44:32:07
especially if you’ve got a new
developments going on and you’re like,
00:44:32:07 – 00:44:35:14
Rosemary, say you’re trying to squeeze out
and optimize what’s happening.
00:44:35:14 – 00:44:38:01
You need to put some people on it
and get that going.
00:44:38:01 – 00:44:40:19
And with when moving offshore,
00:44:41:03 – 00:44:44:20
there’s a lot more variables
there like ships, and
00:44:45:22 – 00:44:47:07
the safety requirements are
00:44:47:07 – 00:44:50:11
just so many more variables
that you’re going to need to have
00:44:51:12 – 00:44:56:01
a management wise,
more of a sort of a deeper
00:44:56:01 – 00:44:59:21
team, broader width of a team
to go support those things.
00:44:59:21 – 00:45:05:19
I think that’s where I would expect to see
some growth on the professional side.
00:45:05:19 – 00:45:07:22
The technician side,
I think, is always going to be growing
00:45:08:03 – 00:45:11:05
as more as there’s more wind
turbines is going to be more technicians
00:45:11:05 – 00:45:15:19
and there’s more opportunities and ever
in the United States in particular,
00:45:16:05 – 00:45:18:11
because you can get training
from a lot of community colleges,
00:45:18:11 – 00:45:21:05
it doesn’t cost very much
to get some really good
00:45:21:14 – 00:45:26:00
local training
and get a really good paying job.
00:45:26:03 – 00:45:27:18
There are technicians
00:45:27:18 – 00:45:31:01
that contact us that are making $100,000
a year as technicians.
00:45:31:09 – 00:45:36:00
That’s a good gig, and I think more of
those jobs will come about next
00:45:36:00 – 00:45:39:14
year, too, just because of all the wind
turbines we already have in service.
00:45:41:00 – 00:45:42:11
It’s fun, too.
00:45:42:11 – 00:45:46:09
I love it when I get to tag along
with wind turbine technicians for a day.
00:45:46:11 – 00:45:51:04
I think it’s a really, really varied job
and yeah, yeah, you’re outside.
00:45:51:08 – 00:45:52:05
It’s nice.
00:45:52:05 – 00:45:55:11
Last question two parter will we see
00:45:55:11 – 00:45:58:11
a bigger turbine announced in 2022?
00:45:58:12 – 00:46:01:13
Obviously, the may can’t do it every year,
but will we see one announce at all?
00:46:02:01 – 00:46:06:11
And will we see sort of a chosen design
as far as floating
00:46:06:11 – 00:46:07:21
or there’s
been a lot of different designs?
00:46:07:21 – 00:46:11:07
Or will we see one sort of design
maybe pull ahead of the others?
00:46:12:07 – 00:46:15:18
OK, so I’ll have I have actually
a bold, bold prediction here,
00:46:15:18 – 00:46:19:00
so I think that, yes, we’ll see
a bigger one announced
00:46:19:00 – 00:46:22:06
because there’s already things
in the pipeline and I know that people
00:46:22:06 – 00:46:26:01
are planning projects already
that use like 18 megawatt turbines.
00:46:26:01 – 00:46:28:15
So we’re going to we’re going to say
some amounts and stuff like that.
00:46:29:01 – 00:46:32:14
But I think we’re going to really soon
get to the point where we’re going to say
00:46:32:14 – 00:46:36:20
like a bifurcation in the wind
turbine technology, you’re going to say
00:46:36:21 – 00:46:39:16
some designs continue to go bigger.
00:46:40:00 – 00:46:41:14
But I also think
we’re going to get to the point
00:46:41:14 – 00:46:42:23
where some companies are going to start
00:46:42:23 – 00:46:47:01
to say we can’t make money off
of bigger and bigger turbine.
00:46:47:01 – 00:46:48:11
And I think you’re going to see people
00:46:48:11 – 00:46:52:08
start to take a look
at the benefits of modularity.
00:46:52:08 – 00:46:55:23
And maybe I think the floating
floating wind turbine tech
00:46:56:00 – 00:46:59:01
that Alan was mentioning before fits in
well to this.
00:46:59:01 – 00:47:04:21
I think that there’s some opportunity
to get more more out of a wind farm
00:47:04:21 – 00:47:10:02
as a whole by maybe making
a floating platform with several turbines
00:47:10:09 – 00:47:14:04
or several rotors on it, at least
whether it’s multiple turbines
00:47:14:04 – 00:47:17:23
or it’s a multi right like the one
the Vestas tried a few years ago
00:47:18:12 – 00:47:21:21
that can, you know, like rotate together
00:47:21:21 – 00:47:25:05
and not get in each other’s way
and maybe simplify
00:47:25:07 – 00:47:29:10
some of the maintenance by having,
you know, little mini platforms.
00:47:29:16 – 00:47:32:09
I think we’ll start to see something
something like that.
00:47:32:09 – 00:47:36:08
I don’t think that it’s
going to be only bigger from now on.
00:47:36:16 – 00:47:39:14
I think that we’re getting close
to the point where people are going
00:47:39:14 – 00:47:43:21
to look to other ways to
to extract more value out of a wind farm.
00:47:44:01 – 00:47:46:09
Obviously, yes. Bigger turbines.
00:47:46:09 – 00:47:47:02
Immediately.
00:47:47:02 – 00:47:51:07
I think if the Vestas or Siemens
00:47:51:07 – 00:47:54:18
or GE or Nordics doesn’t do it, there’s,
00:47:56:01 – 00:47:56:06
you know,
00:47:56:06 – 00:47:59:06
I think the Chinese will do it
just for national pride sake.
00:47:59:06 – 00:48:03:05
So whatever or whatever the Europeans
and the Americans come up with,
00:48:03:05 – 00:48:05:12
there will be a bigger one in China.
OK, cool.
00:48:06:02 – 00:48:11:04
The the floating wind is a different
or is this a different animal?
00:48:11:04 – 00:48:13:07
And I don’t know
if we’re going to find out.
00:48:13:15 – 00:48:16:17
We’re going to find out very quickly
which floating platform
00:48:17:01 – 00:48:19:12
is the least costly over time.
00:48:20:12 – 00:48:25:13
That one,
I need a couple more years of of turbines
00:48:25:13 – 00:48:29:22
in the water to really figure out
because it’s just like onshore wind,
00:48:29:22 – 00:48:34:00
honestly, that it took us three or four
or five years to figure out we had
00:48:34:21 – 00:48:36:23
onshore
wind problems of what to do about it in
00:48:36:23 – 00:48:39:00
the next generation comes around
and you haven’t figured out
00:48:39:19 – 00:48:43:20
the floating piece is really unique
and what the loads are going
00:48:43:20 – 00:48:47:06
to be on the blades and on the towers
and what that looks like.
00:48:47:06 – 00:48:49:09
And are they designed to take those loads?
00:48:50:13 – 00:48:52:02
A lot of it has to do with the platform.
00:48:52:02 – 00:48:53:06
It just does.
00:48:53:06 – 00:48:58:09
And how that all those pieces interact
because you think of these big,
00:48:58:09 – 00:49:01:10
massive structures
are being very mechanically stiff.
00:49:02:08 – 00:49:04:17
They’re not mechanically stiff,
they’re moving
00:49:04:17 – 00:49:07:22
and flexing
and breathing is what I call it.
00:49:07:22 – 00:49:11:19
They’re moving around enough
that they’re almost like a live creature.
00:49:12:08 – 00:49:15:20
And that’s where that movement and flexing
00:49:15:20 – 00:49:20:07
and bending in the hot
and the cold, that bad things happen.
00:49:20:07 – 00:49:23:16
And we’re all we only know
that as engineers from experience.
00:49:23:16 – 00:49:26:13
And unfortunately, we’re going to have to
go through a little bit of a rough patch.
00:49:26:14 – 00:49:28:19
I think it’s inevitable
00:49:29:00 – 00:49:29:22
that that’s going to happen.
00:49:29:22 – 00:49:33:23
But the floating wind piece is still open
and I think.
00:49:34:22 – 00:49:35:08
All right.
00:49:35:08 – 00:49:38:11
Any final predictions
from either of you two?
00:49:38:18 – 00:49:44:05
Yeah, I have one, I think 2022 is going
to be the year of virtual power plant
00:49:44:05 – 00:49:47:09
and especially for virtual power plants
00:49:47:09 – 00:49:50:13
that include homes in the in the mix.
00:49:50:13 – 00:49:51:14
I’ll focus on homes.
00:49:51:14 – 00:49:55:12
So, you know, houses that have rooftop
solar houses that have batteries.
00:49:55:18 – 00:49:59:12
Maybe they have an electric vehicle
we’re seeing in Australia now.
00:49:59:12 – 00:50:03:07
We’ve got such a high penetration
of rooftop solar and people are starting
00:50:03:07 – 00:50:06:07
to, you know, like really screw screw back
how much money
00:50:06:07 – 00:50:08:11
you can get by supplying that to the grid.
00:50:08:11 – 00:50:11:21
But it’s kind of in
a way, it’s kind of unfair
00:50:11:21 – 00:50:14:17
because there’s no time of day
component to it.
00:50:14:17 – 00:50:17:08
So, you know, if you’re supplying
00:50:17:08 – 00:50:19:22
your solar power in the middle of the day
when prices are negative,
00:50:20:06 – 00:50:23:23
you get the same price, low price
as if you are supplying it
00:50:23:23 – 00:50:27:18
in the evening from your battery
when you prices are very high.
00:50:27:19 – 00:50:31:19
And I think that business models
that can take advantage
00:50:31:19 – 00:50:33:20
of that inefficiency and give
00:50:34:06 – 00:50:37:23
give some of that value to households
that can be very powerful.
00:50:37:23 – 00:50:42:11
As in Australia, at least,
there’s a huge amount of rooftop solar.
00:50:42:18 – 00:50:45:15
People are keen to get batteries.
00:50:46:06 – 00:50:51:02
And I think as we get more EVs as well,
there’s just like a huge potential
00:50:51:02 – 00:50:55:03
to really start to treat
that whole very distributed system
00:50:55:10 – 00:51:00:09
as as a whole, add some real value
to the electricity that work.
00:51:00:09 – 00:51:04:03
Reduce the need for transmission upgrades,
potentially at stake.
00:51:04:03 – 00:51:07:07
The so much value there
and what’s missing is the business case.
00:51:07:07 – 00:51:10:23
There are not the business case
of business models to to make it work and,
00:51:11:15 – 00:51:14:17
you know, make sure that everyone
who’s participating is benefiting from it.
00:51:14:17 – 00:51:18:02
So that’s that’s
what I desperately want to see in 2022,
00:51:18:02 – 00:51:21:14
and I don’t see huge technical reasons
why it couldn’t.
00:51:21:15 – 00:51:23:18
So I think that we’re ready for it.
00:51:23:18 – 00:51:27:05
I have two things that I think
would be amazing to see next year.
00:51:28:14 – 00:51:30:12
Real carbon capture,
00:51:30:12 – 00:51:34:04
real carbon capture,
and I think we’re very close to right
00:51:34:04 – 00:51:34:23
now, Rosemary
00:51:34:23 – 00:51:38:01
and I know your daughter in this,
but I think there’s going to be
00:51:38:01 – 00:51:42:11
some significant efforts
in 2022 in carbon capture,
00:51:42:17 – 00:51:47:19
even in it’s just Tesla and SpaceX
and Musk driving it or Google driving it.
00:51:47:19 – 00:51:49:19
I think there’ll be some carbon capture.
00:51:50:03 – 00:51:53:08
The second one I think is is
I think it’s coming
00:51:53:08 – 00:51:54:20
because the way energy prices
are going to be in
00:51:54:20 – 00:51:59:11
the United States is floating
storage, floating battery storage.
00:51:59:11 – 00:52:02:17
So this company in Japan
that has a floating battery storage.
00:52:03:02 – 00:52:04:22
I think that’s a real thing.
00:52:04:22 – 00:52:09:02
I think there’s a possibility
that floating battery storage will supply.
00:52:09:02 – 00:52:11:03
It will help the offshore wind industry.
00:52:11:03 – 00:52:13:04
I think those two things
are likely to happen.
00:52:13:14 – 00:52:17:20
That is very interesting
and I do agree about the carbon capture
00:52:17:20 – 00:52:21:17
because the price of carbon price
is going very high.
00:52:21:17 – 00:52:25:13
I think over €100
or it’s expected to be soon.
00:52:26:07 – 00:52:29:08
And can I just add that billionaires
that are flying
00:52:29:15 – 00:52:34:08
private jets should all be offsetting
their carbon with direct air capture
00:52:34:08 – 00:52:39:02
or something that costs cost a lot,
but is, you know, very robust,
00:52:39:02 – 00:52:43:02
robust and verifiable help them
get the cost of that technology down
00:52:43:02 – 00:52:46:05
so that in 20, 40, 50,
when we need it, it’s there.
00:52:46:06 – 00:52:49:16
So all the billionaires that listen
to this podcast and I know there’s a lot,
00:52:51:12 – 00:52:52:03
please start
00:52:52:03 – 00:52:54:21
offsetting your private jet flights
with direct catch up.
00:52:55:17 – 00:52:59:03
I personally want you to continue
on those jet flights because that keeps
00:52:59:06 – 00:53:00:15
revenue into my company.
00:53:00:15 – 00:53:06:09
So I need I need people to be flying, so
keep flying as much as you possibly can.
00:53:06:12 – 00:53:10:21
The airplane industry is doing a ton
of of energy improvements
00:53:10:21 – 00:53:14:18
in carbon dioxide reductions
on the way that they fly those aircraft.
00:53:14:18 – 00:53:16:11
But I need people to be flying.
00:53:16:11 – 00:53:18:09
So I agree with Rosemary
00:53:18:09 – 00:53:20:00
that we should all reduce
the amount of carbon
00:53:20:00 – 00:53:22:05
in the atmosphere, carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere,
00:53:22:05 – 00:53:24:07
and I think carbon capture
is the way to do it.
00:53:24:07 – 00:53:27:09
Whoever decides to step up and do it,
I just don’t care.
00:53:27:09 – 00:53:30:11
I think it’s going to be something
that the world
00:53:30:11 – 00:53:33:18
will grab hold of here, hopefully in 2022.
00:53:33:19 – 00:53:35:14
All right. Well, that’s going to do it.
00:53:35:14 – 00:53:37:01
Thanks, number one for listening.
00:53:37:01 – 00:53:41:13
This past year, you know, we’ve reached 90
plus episodes closing in on the Big 100.
00:53:41:13 – 00:53:45:15
So thank you for being a great listener
and sharing the show and and all that.
00:53:45:15 – 00:53:46:15
So we appreciate you.
00:53:46:15 – 00:53:52:05
We’ve grown a lot this this this year
and we can look forward to a great 2022.
00:53:52:17 – 00:53:53:20
So thanks again.
00:53:53:20 – 00:53:56:00
Be sure to subscribe to the show
and share with a friend.
00:53:56:08 – 00:54:00:09
Have a safe and happy new year
and we will see you here in 2022.
00:54:08:17 – 00:54:12:01
Operating a profitable wind farm
is all about mitigating costs,
00:54:12:01 – 00:54:16:05
minimizing risks and being efficient
with maintenance repairs and upgrades.
00:54:16:18 – 00:54:19:12
It’s incredibly expensive
to send a team of rope access
00:54:19:12 – 00:54:22:08
technicians up tower
to make even simple repairs.
00:54:22:20 – 00:54:25:08
We also know how costly lightning damage
can be,
00:54:25:09 – 00:54:29:11
requiring inspection, repairs and downtime
for even minor lightning strikes.
00:54:30:01 – 00:54:34:12
Maximize the time efficiency of your tax
and prevent future lightning damage
00:54:34:12 – 00:54:36:00
by installing our strike tape
00:54:36:00 – 00:54:39:13
LPS upgrade the next time
your crews are going up on ropes.
00:54:40:01 – 00:54:41:03
Learn more in today’s show
00:54:41:03 – 00:54:45:01
notes or visit us on the web
at Weather Guard Wind Dotcom.
